This publication proposes six (6) key pillars to address climate change in Pakistan which include: (i) Recalibrate – NDC’s in line with economic growth, (ii) Measure – GHG emissions, (iii) Strengthen - institutions, (iv) Incentivise – private sector, (v) Disclose – GHG accounting and (vi) Revolutionise – global carbon markets.
Climate change is the defining problem of our generation and Pakistan is the 8th most vulnerable nation impacted by it. Pakistan is a signatory to the Paris Agreement and must transition towards a low-carbon future, limiting global temperature rise to 2°C (or ideally to 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels. 70% of the youth in Pakistan (representing 60%+ of the total populus) are concerned with the environmental impact of climate change and 80% consider it to be a key voting issue at national level. We believe a multi-tiered approach consisting of 6 pillars is necessary that oversees climate action at a policy-making, academic and enterprise level, spearheaded by advancements in modern technology.
Pakistan committed to the Paris Agreement and was one of the signatories among 196 nations, which states emissions must peak for all signatories before 2025 and then decline 43% by 2030. As part of the Paris Agreement, all signatory nations have disclosed their national climate action plans in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by pledging to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapting to climate change. Pakistan last updated its NDCs in 2021 by increasing its target ambitions from a 20% business-as-usual (BaU) reduction to a 50% BaU reduction by 2030. These targets were set according to a 2015 baseline.
The updated reduction target amounts to 801.2 million tCO2e (tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) in absolute terms, which can be broken into an unconditional reduction target of 15% amounting to 240.15 million tCO2e and a 35% conditional target amounting to 561.05 million tCO2e. The conditional targets outlined are contingent on receiving financing support and technology transfer from developed nations, while unconditional targets will be met from indigenous resources.
According to the NDCs, this energy transition will require an investment of USD 101 billion by 2030 and an additional USD 65 billion by 2040. As the projection for investment required is unsubstantiated and aggressive in nature (USD 28 billion of climate financing have been approved in total since 2010 in accordance with the Cancun Agreement), such will not be accepted by multilateral financial institution or global impact investors. The target will be met primarily through nature-based sequestration (NBS), with projects such as the Ten Billion Tree Project. However, with budget cuts and without official statements released from the authorities, there is little clarity on progress made beyond the first billion tree milestone reached in 2021. Energy generated through renewable means will aim to reach 60% of total electricity produced 2030. Sales of electric vehicles will increase by 30% and a moratorium on imported coal will help achieve national climate mitigation goals.
This publication proposes six (6) key pillars to address climate change in Pakistan which include: (i) Recalibrate – NDC’s in line with economic growth, (ii) Measure – GHG emissions, (iii) Strengthen - institutions, (iv) Incentivise – private sector, (v) Disclose – GHG accounting and (vi) Revolutionise – global carbon markets.
